Mac 14, 2016
First, about last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD was unfolding more or less according to plan till the middle of Thursday – the pair first went down, then rebounded, set two boundaries of the corridor and entered a sideways trend. Specifically on 10 March, following the announcement about the ECB’s decision on interest rates, the pair fell to 1.0821 but then ECB Head Mario Draghi turned the market opinion about and the pair soared by 500 points to 1.1217. Nonetheless, EUR/USD still stayed within the 1.0710-1.1340 channel set by the indicators and graphical analysis on D1;
- the forecast for GBP/USD provided by graphical analysis was the most precise – at the beginning of the week, the pair was supposed to be oscillating in the range from 1.4150 to 1.4250, then rise and reach 1.4375. All this happened for the most part – until Thursday, the pair moved in a 1.4132-1.4275 channel, then went up and finished the week around 1.4380;
- for USD/JPY, graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on all timeframes pointed to a further sideways trend within a 113.00-114.50 range. In reality, the pair did continue to move in the horizontal channel, virtually repeating the scenario of the previous week. As a result, the amplitude of its fluctuations was slightly greater than the predicted 112.22-114.44. With that, USD/JPY once again finished the week exactly where it had started – at 113.80;
- for two weeks in a row, the experts insisted that USD/CHF should reach the 0.9800 support, which the pair finally did last Thursday.
Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as the forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- in their forecasts for EUR/USD, 75% of the experts, graphical analysis and 100% of the indicators on H4 and D1 rely on the idea that the ‘magic’ of Mario Draghi’s words will last another week at least, and the pair will thus rise even more – to 1.1200-1.1240. Some of the more radical analysts suggest that it may even reach early February’s highs near 1.1350. As for the monthly forecast, almost the same 75% of the experts already speak about a drop to around 1.0800-1.1000. In the meantime, 1.1080 can be considered the strongest support level;
- the experts are unanimous about GBP/USD – 75% of them, supported by the indicators, believe that the pair should reach resistance at 1.4500. Graphical analysis elaborates that the pair will briefly stay at this level and, on breaking support at 1.4370, will first go down to 1.4250-1.4370 for some time and then drop more – to support at 1.4120. This scenario is backed by 65% of the analysts;
- there is no agreement among the experts nor the indicators regarding USD/JPY. About half of them are for a rise while the other half are for a fall. As a result, a sideways channel in a range from 111.00 to 114.50 with a 113.25 pivot point is probable. In the longer term, 60% of the analysts believe that the pair will move up to 117.00; 30% propose a drop to 110.00, and the rest 10% aren’t certain;
- the forecast for USD/CHF is 65% of the experts and 95% of the indicators suggest the pair’s fall to support at 0.9700-0.9750, after which it will resume breaking through 1.0000 and return to 1.0100-1.0200.
Roman Butko, NordFX