The third trading week of 2026 opens with markets still pricing the balance between growth resilience, inflation trends, and the timing of the next policy steps from major central banks. Liquidity conditions may be thinner at the start of the week due to the US holiday on Monday, which can amplify intraday moves and technical breakouts, especially in commodities and crypto.
By the close of trading on Friday, January 16, 2026, EUR/USD finished at 1.1599, Brent crude oil at 64.13 USD per barrel, bitcoin (BTC/USD) near 95,549.6, and gold (XAU/USD) at 4,595.40. As of Saturday, January 17, BTC/USD is trading around 95,200, suggesting consolidation after last week’s rebound.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD closed the week at 1.1599, extending its pullback from early-January highs and keeping the pair inside a short-term downward bias. Price action remains highly sensitive to shifts in US rate expectations and broad risk sentiment, while the euro has struggled to regain sustained upside momentum.
In the coming week, a recovery attempt toward the 1.1640-1.1680 resistance zone cannot be ruled out. Failure to consolidate above this area may trigger renewed selling pressure with a move toward 1.1580-1.1550. A deeper decline toward 1.1505-1.1480 is possible if bearish momentum strengthens and the pair breaks below near-term supports.
A confident breakout and consolidation above 1.1680-1.1720 would invalidate the bearish continuation scenario and open the way toward 1.1765-1.1820. Conversely, a breakdown below 1.1550 would confirm a stronger bearish bias, shifting focus to the 1.1505-1.1480 area.
Baseline view: neutral to mildly bearish while EUR/USD remains below 1.1680-1.1720, with downside risks increasing if 1.1550 is broken.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin ended Friday near 95,549.6 and is trading around 95,200 early Saturday. After a strong mid-week push higher, the market appears to be consolidating, with the 95,000 area acting as a key pivot level for short-term direction.
During the week of January 19-23, BTC/USD may attempt to test resistance in the 96,800-98,000 area. A rejection from this zone could lead to a pullback toward 95,000-94,000, followed by stronger support in the 93,000-91,500 region.
A breakout above 98,000-100,000 would cancel the corrective scenario and signal renewed bullish momentum, opening the way toward 103,000-106,000. On the downside, a breakdown and consolidation below 93,000 would shift the balance toward a deeper correction with potential targets near 91,500-90,000.
Baseline view: neutral to slightly bullish while prices remain above 94,000-95,000, with key resistance located at 96,800-98,000 and a breakout trigger near 100,000.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude closed the week at 64.13 USD per barrel after a volatile sequence of swings, including a sharp mid-week spike and a fast pullback. The technical picture suggests the market is trying to stabilise above key supports, but overhead resistance remains dense and headline-driven moves may continue.
In the new trading week, Brent may test the 64.80-65.50 resistance area. From this zone, a corrective pullback toward 64.00-63.40 is possible, followed by a re-test of the 62.60-61.80 support zone if bearish pressure strengthens.
A strong rise and consolidation above 65.50-66.50 would invalidate the corrective scenario and open the way toward 67.80-68.50. A breakdown below 63.40 would shift the outlook back to bearish, with focus returning to 62.60-61.80 and potentially 60.70-59.90.
Baseline view: neutral to mildly bullish while Brent remains above 63.40, with 64.80-66.50 acting as the key resistance zone.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold closed Friday at 4,595.40, remaining elevated after an exceptionally strong run but showing signs of short-term fatigue following the week’s pullback from local highs. The broader structure remains constructive, yet volatility can increase sharply around major macro releases and shifts in risk appetite.
In the coming week, a corrective pullback toward 4,560-4,540 is possible, followed by renewed attempts to rise toward 4,620-4,650. A breakout above 4,650 would open the way toward 4,700-4,780.
A decline and consolidation below 4,540 would invalidate the bullish continuation scenario and signal the risk of a deeper correction toward 4,500-4,450.
Baseline view: buy on dips while gold remains above 4,540, with upside potential preserved.
Conclusion
The trading week of January 19-23, 2026 may begin with reduced liquidity due to the US holiday, increasing the risk of sharper technical moves. EUR/USD remains vulnerable below key resistance levels and may trade with a bearish bias unless it regains 1.1680-1.1720. Bitcoin is consolidating after last week’s advance, with 95,000 as the key pivot and 98,000-100,000 as the breakout zone. Brent crude is attempting to stabilise above support, but remains sensitive to headlines and resistance near 65.50-66.50. Gold remains structurally bullish, with corrective dips likely to attract renewed buying interest while the metal holds above 4,540.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
