The week of May 25–29 was defined by two decisive forces. First, the US April PCE inflation report (released May 28) confirmed headline PCE at 3.8% year-on-year and core PCE at 3.3% annually – well above the Fed’s 2% target, fuelled by war-driven energy costs from the Strait of Hormuz conflict. Consumer spending rose just 0.1% in real terms and the personal savings rate fell to 2.6%, a near-two-decade low. Second, Axios reported that US and Iranian negotiators agreed on a 60-day Memorandum of Understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin nuclear talks, with guaranteed unrestricted Hormuz shipping – pending President Trump’s signature, which as of Friday’s close had not yet been granted.
Durable Goods Orders beat strongly at +7.9% vs. +3.5% consensus. US Q1 GDP Second Estimate confirmed −0.3% annualised contraction. DXY retreated to near 99.00 on softer PCE and Iran MOU optimism. CME FedWatch: ~40–42% probability of a 25bps hike by December 2026; zero cuts priced in 2026. FOMC pre-meeting blackout began May 29 ahead of the June 16–17 meeting (with a fresh dot plot).
Closing prices, Friday May 29, 2026:
EUR/USD – 1.1660 | Brent Crude – $91.12 | Gold Futures – $4,593.00 | Silver Futures – $76.17 | Bitcoin – $73,565 | Ethereum – $1,992
Key macro calendar, June 2–5: Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI; Final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings; Factory Orders. Wednesday: ADP Employment; ISM Services PMI; EIA Crude Inventories; Fed Beige Book. Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims; US Trade Balance. Friday June 6: US Nonfarm Payrolls (May) – the week’s defining event. Also: Eurozone final PMIs (Mon/Wed); Germany Factory Orders (Thu). FOMC blackout remains in effect all week – no Fed speakers.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD closed at 1.1660 (prev close 1.1650; day range 1.1634–1.1668; 52-week range 1.1313–1.2079; daily rating: Sell). The pair edged up marginally on the week, snapping a three-week losing streak, helped by the softer PCE and ECB minutes showing several policymakers considered the April hold a close call – some ready to back a hike. Markets fully price a 25bps ECB rate hike on June 11. EUR/USD remains below the converged 100-day SMA (~1.1700) and 200-day SMA (~1.1670). RSI ~42 – bearish but not oversold.
Key catalysts: ISM Manufacturing (Mon) – sub-50 weighs on USD. JOLTS (Tue) – weak openings reopen rate-cut narrative. ADP + ISM Services (Wed) – hot services inflation is decisively dollar-bullish. NFP (Fri): consensus ~130–150K; beat above 200K pushes EUR/USD toward 1.1540; miss below 100K opens 1.1750+.
Resistance: 1.1700, 1.1720, 1.1750 │ Support: 1.1580, 1.1540, 1.1500
Baseline view: Neutral with slight positive bias if the ECB hike narrative (June 11) dominates. The 1.1670–1.1700 SMA cluster is the pivot. A strong NFP reverts pressure toward 1.1540–1.1580; a weak print and confirmed Iran deal targets 1.1750+. Base case: 1.1580–1.1720 range.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent settled at $91.12 (−1.70% on the day; daily signal: Strong Sell; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41). Brent fell ~−12% on the week and −17% for May – the largest monthly decline since 2020 – driven entirely by Iran MOU diplomacy unwinding the war premium. Yet no deal is finalised: Trump had not signed as of Friday’s close. Even a confirmed deal brings slow supply restoration: mines need clearing, infrastructure repairing, and shut-in production takes weeks to restart. The IEA warns global supply remains tight through October 2026.
Key catalysts: Trump MOU signature (any day) – the dominant binary: signed deal targets $85; deal collapse re-targets $98–$100. EIA inventories (Wed). ISM Manufacturing (Mon) – sub-50 deepens the selloff. NFP (Fri) – strong print is mildly demand-bullish.
Resistance: $95.00, $98.00, $100.00 │ Support: $88.00, $85.00, $82.00
Baseline view: Bearish to neutral, $87–$96 range. Structural supply deficit (IEA: undersupplied through October) and mine-clearance timeline prevent a full pre-war retreat. A Trump signature before Monday pushes toward $85; a Hormuz incident re-targets $100+. Base case: $87–$96, tied to MOU resolution.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold Futures closed at $4,593.00 (+1.34% on the day; spot XAU/USD ~$4,539–$4,543; 52-week range $3,247.86–$5,595.46; daily rating: Neutral). Gold rallied for a second consecutive session on Friday, recovering from intra-week lows near $4,370 as the softer core PCE (0.2% MoM) and Iran MOU headlines reduced pressure from Fed hike expectations. The metal is ~19% below January’s all-time high near $5,595 but remains +38% year-on-year. Goldman Sachs $5,400 and JPMorgan $5,900 year-end targets remain intact.
Key catalysts: Iran MOU approval – medium-term positive (reopens rate-cut path). ISM Manufacturing (Mon) – sub-50 supports gold via recession risk. ADP + ISM Services (Wed) – hot inflation is gold-negative. NFP (Fri): weak print below 100K targets $4,650–$4,700; strong print above 200K pushes toward $4,480–$4,450.
Resistance: $4,620, $4,680, $4,750 │ Support: $4,500, $4,450, $4,400
Baseline view: Cautiously bullish above $4,500. Friday’s recovery and softer core PCE have stabilised sentiment. The Iran MOU, if signed, removes the structural oil-inflation headwind – net medium-term positive. NFP Friday is the decisive catalyst: weak print targets $4,650+; strong print reopens $4,450. Base case: $4,500–$4,650 range. Long-term bull case ($5,400–$5,900) intact.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver Futures closed at $76.17 (−0.04% on the day; 52-week range $32.70–$121.67; daily rating: Strong Sell). Silver posted a +3.1% monthly gain for May, outperforming gold’s −0.8%, supported by structural industrial demand from solar and AI infrastructure. UBS revised its annual supply deficit forecast down to 60–70 million ounces (from 300M oz) and cut full-year investment demand to 300M oz. The 20-day EMA (~$77.50–$78.00) remains the immediate overhead resistance.
Key catalysts: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mon) – acutely important for industrial silver demand. Iran MOU approval – reduces Fed hike risk, mildly positive. ISM Services Prices Paid (Wed) – elevated levels keep the Fed hawkish. NFP (Fri): weak print opens $79–$81; strong print re-targets $72–$70.
Resistance: $78.00 (20-day EMA), $80.00, $83.00 │ Support: $73.00, $70.00, $67.50
Baseline view: Neutral with slight positive recovery bias above $73. The 20-day EMA at ~$77.50–$78.00 is the key resistance ceiling. A confirmed Iran deal and weak NFP are required to break above it. A strong jobs print and deal collapse re-targets $70. Base case: $73–$78 oscillation range.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin closed at approximately $73,565 (monthly options max pain $75,000; −5.1% on the week). Bitcoin ETFs recorded a 9-consecutive-day outflow streak, pulling over $2.8B since May 14 – the longest since ETF launch in January 2024. BlackRock IBIT alone shed $528M on May 28. The 200-day EMA (~$82,000–$82,500) has rejected BTC for five consecutive weeks. Despite ETF outflows, exchange reserves remain near 7-year lows as long-term holders accumulate. The CLARITY Act (crypto market structure bill) continues to advance in the Senate Banking Committee.
Key catalysts: Iran MOU approval (weekend/Mon) – risk-positive, supports a move toward $75,000–$76,000. ISM Manufacturing (Mon) – sub-50 amplifies recession fears. ADP + ISM Services (Wed) – hot data revives Fed hike risk. NFP (Fri): weak print below 100K re-prices the rate outlook and targets $75,000–$77,000; strong print above 200K deepens decline toward $70,000. CLARITY Act progress – any committee vote is a major positive catalyst.
Resistance: $75,500, $77,300, $80,000 │ Support: $72,000, $70,000, $67,500
Baseline view: Cautiously bearish below the 200-day EMA ($82,000–$82,500). The 9-day ETF outflow streak signals fading institutional demand in the short term, though record-low exchange supply and CLARITY Act tailwinds support the structural floor. $70,000–$72,000 is the critical support zone. Recovery toward the 200-day EMA requires a weak NFP and/or confirmed Iran deal. Base case: $70,000–$76,000 range.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Ethereum closed at $1,992 (prev close $1,991.88; day range $1,969.48–$2,021.03; −12.67% on the month; 52-week range $1,388.12–$4,955.90; daily rating: Strong Sell). ETH broke decisively below the $2,000 psychological level on a closing basis. Spot ETH ETFs recorded 10 consecutive days of outflows, losing $570M since May 11 and $216M for the week alone. The 50-day EMA (~$2,175) and 200-day MA (~$2,200) remain the definitive resistance ceiling, rejecting every rally for six weeks. Options max pain at $2,200. Standard Chartered projects ETH at $4,000 end-2026. The CLARITY Act is the most asymmetric positive catalyst for ETH, directly addressing its commodity vs. security classification dispute.
Key catalysts: Iran MOU (any day) – modestly bullish for risk. ADP + ISM Services (Wed) – hot inflation reinforces Fed hawks, negative for ETH. NFP (Fri): strong print threatens further breakdown toward $1,850; weak print opens a recovery toward $2,100–$2,200. CLARITY Act – a committee vote is the most powerful ETH-specific positive catalyst.
Resistance: $2,050, $2,175 (50-day EMA), $2,200 (200-day MA) │ Support: $2,000, $1,950, $1,850
Baseline view: Neutral with negative bias below $2,050. ETH has broken the $2,000 closing support – a sustained hold below it opens the $1,950–$1,850 zone. The 50-day EMA at $2,175 has capped every rally for six weeks. ETH is unlikely to outperform BTC absent a CLARITY Act catalyst. Base case: $1,900–$2,100 range, with $2,000 as the weekly fulcrum.
Conclusion
The week of June 2–5 is the final full macro week before back-to-back central bank decisions: ECB June 11 and FOMC June 16–17 (with a fresh dot plot). The FOMC blackout is in effect all week, so no Fed guidance will temper data reactions.
The Iran MOU is the unscheduled binary: Trump’s signature before Monday’s open triggers a gap lower in Brent toward $85–$88, DXY pressure below 98.50, and a relief rally in risk assets. A deal collapse reverses all of this.
Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus ~130–150K) is the week’s definitive data event. A miss below 100K cracks the Fed hike narrative, delivering a risk rally. A beat above 200K with wage acceleration deepens dollar strength and punishes every instrument in this forecast.
EUR/USD holds in a 1.1580–1.1720 range, supported by ECB hike pricing. Brent trades in a binary MOU regime: $87–$96. Gold cautiously recovers above $4,500; NFP determines $4,450 bear or $4,650 bull. Silver oscillates $73–$78. Bitcoin defends $70,000–$72,000 with $82,000 (200-day EMA) as the bull target. Ethereum has broken below $2,000 – a sustained hold below it opens the $1,850 zone.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
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