Jun 13, 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

  • making forecast for EUR/USD for the upcoming month, the majority of experts (around 80%) insisted that the pair would go down at least to the level of 1.1100. Eventually, following the speech of the president of the ECB Mario Draghi, the pair did start going south and wrapped up the week in the middle between the level of support of 1.1283 and 1.1200, indicated on the basis of the data, provided by the graphical analysis;
  • ahead of Brexit the volatility of GBP/USD is increasing day by day. As a reminder, last week opinions of analysts were split almost equally – 45% voted for the pair’s rise, 45% - for its fall, and 10% - for the sideways channel and fluctuations around the Pivot Point of 1.4500. As a result, the pair first went up to the specified line, then it reached the mark of 1.4660, in total moving upwards by 300 points in one-and-a-half day, following which it reversed and turned back to the Pivot Point, and then it plunged, breaking through all expected levels of support and eventually dropping by 500 points;
  • and as to the forecast for USD/JPY, it may be considered to be fully fulfilled. All 100% of experts unanimously ruled out the fall of this pair, therewith one half of them voted for its rise, the other half – for its horizontal movement. Eventually, failing to break through the level of support at 106.30, the pair went up by 150 points, and then it returned to the early week marks, identifying the level of 107.00 as the Pivot Point;
  • as to the acting of USD/CHF, once again the graphical analysis proved to be right, over a period of several weeks it had been insistently warning of a possible fall of the pair to the support of 0.9500. Eventually the pair almost reached the predetermined target, going down to the level of 0.9577, following which it rebounded and ended the week in the area of 0.9640.

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

  • the medium-term forecast for EUR/USD remains the same – declining to the level of 1.1000 during the month. 70% of experts agree to this scenario. As to its acting in the upcoming week, the experts combined with the graphical analysis on H4 and indicators on D1 predict a sideways movement with a predominance of bearish trends and the support at 1.1210. The graphical analysis on D1 provides an alternative point of view. Even though it also predicts a horizontal trend, according to its opinion the pair should first rise to the high of 1.4440, and only then it should go down to the support of 1.1210, and then even further down – to the level of 1.1135;
  • as to GBP/USD, the graphical analysis seems to be aware of the approaching Brexit referendum. For at least it refuses to make any forecasts on Н1, Н4, and D1. However, opinions of indicators and experts differ drastically: if 100% of the former point down, then 90% of others reckon that the pair would tend to return to the Pivot Point of 1.4500. Surge upwards to the resistance of 1.4400 is mentioned as the minimum goal;
  • surprisingly opinions of experts concerning the future of USD/JPY concurred with both readings of the indicators and graphical analysis. According to their joint decision, the pair will continue moving alongside the Pivot Point of 107.00. The first support will be at 106.50, the second support will be at 105.50, the resistance will be in the areas of 107.50, 107.90 and 108.70;
  • as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF – the experts identify the level of 0.9550 as the local bottom for this pair, and the graphical analysis reckons that this bottom would be at the level of 0.9600. With this, the attempts of the bulls to return the pair to the zone of 0.9700 – 0.9750 are pointed out. As to the 30-day forecast, the opinions vary: the analysts keep insisting on the pair’s attempts to reach the level of 1.0000, and the graphical analysis suggests that when the pair bounces off the resistance of 0.9750, the pair will go down to the lows of early May in the area of 0.9445.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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