Ogos 8, 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

  • as to EUR/USD, the pair met expectations of both those experts supporting its rise to the area of 1.1250 and those predicting that the pair would start going south. So earlier in the week the pair surged upwards, reaching the mark of 1.1235 on Tuesday, and afterwards it reversed and showed an equal plunge. Acting of the pair on Friday was somewhat surprising, when the USA data were announced. As a reminder, the forecast reckoned that NFP could drop from 287k to 175k. Actual value (255k) indeed came out lower than the previous one, but not enough to meet expectations of the market. Eventually instead of weakening, the greenback strengthened its positions, rebounding by over 100 points versus euro. However then the pair returned to the pivot point of the last six weeks – to the area of 1.1090;
  • GBP/USD. Uncertain situation with Brexit seems to balance the powers of bulls and bears for long. That’s why 75% of experts, backed by the technical analysis, believed that the pair would continue its horizontal movement within the range of 1.3050–1.3335. This is exactly what happened – neither ECB meeting, held on Wednesday, nor news from the Bank of England, released on Thursday, nor NFP data, released on Friday, could drive it out of this channel. Eventually the pair ended the week virtually at the lower boundary of the predetermined range – at 1.3060;
  • giving forecast for USD/JPY, experts failed to form any consensus - 30% of analysts reckoned that the pair would try to go down to the level of 100.00, 40% of experts believed that it won’t be able to break through the support of 101.50, and, finally, the rest 30% voted for its sideways movement. In fact, on the second try the pair could break through the level of 101.50, and having turned it into the resistance, it changed over to a sideways trend, where it had consolidated till the release of NFP, whereby it returned to the area it had started the week from - 102.00;
  • USD/CHF – as it was expected, earlier in the week the pair was moving in a sideways channel within 0.9660–0.9720, and afterwards it went down. However, it failed to get to the support of 0.9500, when rebounded from the last week’s low it reversed and, being supported by the news from Europe and the USA, it moved upwards, wrapping up the week around the key level of the last two years - 0.9800.

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

  • as to EUR/USD, most experts concur that the down trend, started on August 2, will continue, and the next target for the pair will be the support within 1.0950–1.1000. 85% of indicators on H4 and D1 as well as the graphical analysis on H1 and H4 agree to this scenario. With this, the graphical analysis specifies that early in the week the pair may tick up to the upper boundary of the down trend – up to 1.1130, having bounced off which it will go down to the support of 1.1035, and then even further down to 1.0950. If the resistance of 1.1130 is broken through, the pair can rise up to the next resistance of 1.1170, which is at the upper boundary of a three-month descending channel, which had begun on May 3. The third resistance will be at 1.1220;
  • 70% of experts expect GBP/USD to rebound upwards from the lower boundary of the horizontal channel of 1.3050–1.3335, and according to them it will keep within this range for a few days. The remaining 30% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on D1, believe that the increased volatility of the pair will allow it to expand this range up to the levels of 1.2800 and 1.3500. In this case the upwards rebound should be expected already from this channel of 1.2800. Early next week we’ll see which of this scenarios will play out, however, it should be mentioned that all 100% of experts predict that during August the price will retest the bottom within 1.2700–1.2800 again for sure;
  • as to the future of USD/JPY, the majority of experts share the same opinion that the down trend of the entire 2016 has not finished yet, and the pair should be expected to go down first to the support of 100.00, and then further down to 98.90. With this, according to the graphical analysis on Н4, it is possible that before plunging the pair will first try to reach the upper boundary of this long-term descending channel (clearly seen on D1), which is at the area of 103.50–104.00;
  • as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the half of experts believes that the pair will try to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. 95% of indicators on H4 and 80% on D1 agree with this. The rest 50% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4 reckon that the level of 0.9800 will become rather a pivot point, alongside which the pair will be moving within 0.9735–0.9900, than a support.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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