Oktober 23, 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- predicting the future of EUR/USD, most experts (60%), backed by 100% of indicators on H4 and D1, expected the pair to go down to the lows of February-March - 1.0800-1.0825. It was just a question of time this process would take. The level of 1.0900 was indicated as the short-term support. Indeed, that support was a short-term one, and the pair got over it on Friday easily, than having declined to the level of 1.0860. It was followed by a small rebound, and the pair ended the week at the level of 1.0885;
- as a reminder, giving the forecast for GBP/USD 70% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4, reckoned that in the near future the pair would not fall below the level of 1.2100 and it would move in a sideways channel of 1.2100-1.2330. That forecast was 100% fulfilled. The low of the week was recorded at the level of 1.2135 on Monday. Several attempts the pair made on Tuesday and Wednesday to break through the resistance failed, and it wrapped up the week almost in the middle of the specified side channel - at the level of 1.2230;
- USD/JPY. Here, the graphical analysis provided the most accurate forecast, it predicted that the pair would go down and transit to the sideways trend within 102.80–104.30. Indeed, the pair started declining since the very first moment of opening of the week session and during all five days it kept within the side channel within 103.16–104.35;
- USD/CHF pair continues moving insistently towards its main target – the high of 1.0100. With this, last week the part of analysts reckoned that the pair was in for a temporary rebound. But 40%of them were adamant that before going down it should reach the mark of 0.9950 for sure. The pair not only met the target, but also beat it a little bit, moving up to the level of 0.9962 within a week.
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- talking about the future of EUR/USD 70% of experts reckon that the pair will continue its declining at least to the level of 1.0800. 100% of indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this scenario. The decline can be even greater if forecast on state of economy of the USA will be proved true. Some readings for September will be announced on Thursday, October 27, and annual data on GDP – on Friday, October 28. The analysts expect them to be rather positive for US dollar, which can drop the pair further. As a reminder, last year the pair fell below the level of 1.0500 repeatedly. Around 30% of experts and the graphical analysis on H4, which draws in first a sideways movement of the pair within 1.0855–1.0915 and then upswing to the level of 1.0960, hold an alternative view. The next resistance will be at 1.1100;
- GBP/USD. Here, around 80% of analysts, backed by 70% of indicators, reckon that in the near future the pair will start declining first to the level of 1.2100, and then – to 1.2000. As for the graphical analysis, according to its readings early week the pair will keep within 1.2135–1.2300 for some time, and then its volatility will increase up to 1.2000–1.2430. The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, and president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, will speak on Tuesday, their speeches can influence forming of a new trend, as well as the aforesaid data on the US economy. It should be noted that in a longer term opinion of analysts is changing, and over 55% of them expect the pair to rise to the area of 1.2800–1.3000 by the New Year;
- USD/JPY. For the fourth week in a row the opinions of experts in respect of the future of this pair split almost equally: 40% vote for its rise, 40% - for its fall, 20% - for a sideways trend with the pivot point of 103.45. If we add readings of 70% of indicators and the graphical analysis to this variety of opinions, in the near future we can expect the pair to upswing first to the level of 105.00, and then fall to the support in the area of 103.20. The next support will be at 102.80. Coming back to the opinions of the experts, it may be noted that in the medium term already 65% of them reckon that the pair will surely reach the high of 105.00;
- as for the forecast for USD/CHF, here everything is unchanged: around 60% of analysts, 90% of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4 vote for another breakthrough of the pair to the north – this time to the high of 1.0000, and then bouncing off to the area of 0.9700-0.9800. The remaining 40% of experts believe that the pair will reverse southwards, failing to reach this benchmark level. The nearest support levels will be at 0.9855 and 0.9820, then – at 0.9765 and 0.9695.
Roman Butko, NordFX