Mac 21, 2016
First, about last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD proved 100% correct. The main support was set at 1.1080, and the suggested peak for the pair’s rise was at 1.1350. In fact, from Monday to Wednesday, the pair relied on support around 1.1060-1.1080, and then on the news from the USA, it moved up reaching 1.1342, as expected;
- although GBP/USD finally reached the forecast resistance level of 1.4500, it did so only after it dropped considerably, breaking through all the expected support levels and rebounding from a 1.4052 bottom;
- in the forecast for USD/JPY, the 50% of the experts supporting a fall turned out to be right. The pair did drop, made it to support at 111.00, as predicted by the experts, and finished the week at 111.52;
- the USD/CHF pair was supposed to go down to support at 0.9700, which happened. The pair even overdid it a bit – it dropped 50 points going down to 0.9650 and entered a sideways trend, carefully sticking to the 0.9700 area just as the analysts had said.
Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- the experts' opinions about EUR/USD are divided – about 40% of them are for a rise, another 40% are for a fall, and the remaining 20% support a sideways trend. As for the indicators, 75% of them on H4 and 100% on D1 point upwards. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with it, setting the target as last August’s high of 1.1700. With this, according to graphical analysis on H4, before starting to rise, EUR/USD may bounce off resistance at 1.1380 and fall to 1.1130. In the longer term, most analysts still tend to believe the pair will go down at least to 1.0500 in the next few months;
- according to graphical analysis and 55% of the experts, GBP/USD may first move in a 1.4360-1.4650 sideways channel for several days and then drop sharply to 1.4230. The long-term forecast, supported by 60% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1, suggests the pair should fall even more attempting to reach 1.3840, the low of the end of last February;
- it’s obvious that the indicators point downward for USD/JPY. However, most analysts and graphical analysis on D1 reckon that the pair has almost reached its bottom and will be moving in a 110.00-113.00 sideways channel for some time;
- graphical analysis on H4 and 70% of the experts insist that USD/CHF should rise at least to resistance at 0.9850, with the ultimate target of moving above the key level of 1.0000. Support remains at 0.9650.
Roman Butko, NordFX