As we step into the last week of November, global financial markets are grappling with a mix of challenges and opportunities. Geopolitical developments, including the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are intensifying risk aversion among investors, driving demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar. At the same time, market participants are closely watching the U.S. Federal Reserve, where speculation about a potential rate cut is gaining traction due to softening inflation and mixed economic data. In Europe, the ECB's cautious approach and persistent economic sluggishness are keeping the euro under pressure, while cryptocurrencies continue to attract attention amid growing institutional interest, even as regulatory uncertainties persist.
Against this backdrop, major trading instruments like EUR/USD, XAU/USD, and BTC/USD are exhibiting distinctive trends. The interplay of macroeconomic forces and technical patterns in these instruments suggests both opportunities and risks for traders in the week ahead. Below is a detailed analysis of their forecasted movements.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD currency pair is trading around 1.0400, navigating a broader sideways channel that has dominated its trend in recent months. Despite the current bearish momentum, the pair remains in a state of consolidation, with significant resistance at 1.0685 and support at 1.0345. Moving averages reinforce the bearish sentiment, showing downward pressure as prices have broken below key signal lines. However, a potential rebound from the 1.0345 level could serve as a catalyst for recovery, targeting the upper boundary of the range near 1.0685.
This week's forecast suggests a retest of the 1.0345 support zone, where a rebound is likely. A breakout above 1.0535 would confirm bullish momentum and signal a move towards 1.0685. Conversely, a sustained break below 1.0045 could invalidate this recovery scenario and pave the way for a deeper decline towards 0.9865. Technical indicators, including the relative strength index (RSI), provide additional signals, with a rebound from oversold levels potentially supporting the upside case.
XAU/USD
Gold prices remain robust, currently trading near $2,700 per ounce, underpinned by heightened geopolitical tensions and speculation about a softer U.S. monetary policy. The precious metal has been moving within a strong bullish channel, with prices breaking above the area between key signal lines on moving averages, signalling robust demand. While the long-term trend points to continued upward movement, a short-term corrective pullback toward the $2,485 support level may occur before another leg higher.
The forecast for the week suggests that gold will test $2,485, followed by a rebound targeting $3,125. The RSI indicator and the bullish channel's lower boundary are expected to act as key support zones. However, a break below $2,435 would invalidate the bullish scenario, indicating a shift in momentum and opening the door for further declines to $2,345. A confirmed breakout above $2,755 would reinforce bullish sentiment and signal a resumption of the upward trend.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin continues its impressive rally, closing last week near $98,790 and maintaining its trajectory within a well-defined ascending channel. The cryptocurrency is benefiting from increased demand as a hedge against inflation and fiat currency instability. Moving averages indicate a sustained bullish trend, though short-term corrections are likely as the asset consolidates its recent gains.
This week, a pullback toward $91,305 is expected, followed by a potential bounce targeting $116,505. A breakout above the resistance level of $102,505 would confirm the bullish continuation, while a drop below $80,505 would invalidate this outlook and signal a deeper correction towards $72,605. Technical indicators, such as RSI, show potential support for an upward rebound, but traders should remain vigilant for sudden shifts, which are typical in the cryptocurrency market.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.
